Test Cricket

World Test Championship 2023: Final Qualification Scenario for All Teams

India, Australia, and South Africa the main contenders as we look at the World Test Championship 2021-23 final qualification scenario for all teams. 

The 2021-23 World Test Championship is taking a wonderful shape in its final stages as teams are battling it out for the final two spots. The tournament was nicely poised at the mid-stage with almost 7 teams in contention for the final two spots. However, the current scenario has left only four teams left for the final fight with Pakistan, England, and New Zealand already eliminated. 

As on December 19, 2022, Australia are currently sitting at the top with a PCT of 76.92%. India are second with a PCT of 55.76% after their recent win against Bangladesh. South Africa, who are playing in Australia are at the number 3 position with a PCT of 54.54%. Whereas Sri Lanka are fourth with a PCT of 53.33.

All these four teams are nicely poised with a good shot at the WTC final. No team is qualified as yet, and the battle will go down the wire till the last two series. So, as we enjoy the Test match time, let’s look at the final qualification scenario for India all 4 teams for World Test Championship 2021-23.

Even though England are playing fantastic cricket, we won’t analyze them as they are already eliminated. Meanwhile, per a leading website, Betway, India and Australia are favorites to win the qualify for the World Test Championship final with Odds at 1.8 and 2.1 respectively. 


Points Contested: 156 // Points Earned: 120 // PCT: 76.92%

Yet to Contest: 2 Home Tests vs SA & 4 Away Tests vs India 

Australia are comfortably placed at the first position in the points table with a PCT of 76.92%. Of all teams, they are best-placed to qualify for the final of the World Test Championship. They have 6 matches left from here on. That’s 2 home matches vs South Africa and 4 away matches vs India.

Australia may be facing India in their den, but all they got to do is win three of their remaining 6 matches to qualify without any issues. Three wins from here could take them to a PCT of 68.42%, which is good enough to qualify as the other three teams can at max get to a PCT of 68.06%. 

However, If Australia lose 4, which is also a possibility, they would end at a PCT of 63.16%. Australia would not want to be in this situation, but in case they lose 4 of their remaining 6 matches, they would want India to lose one or South Africa to draw one match to qualify for the final.

Australia Prediction: Final Points: 156 // PCT%: 68.42%


Points Contested: 156 // Points Earned: 87 // PCT: 55.76%

Yet to Contest: 1 Away Test vs Bangladesh & 4 Home Tests vs Australia

After a win in the first Test vs Bangladesh, India are now second in the WTC Points table with a PCT of 55.76%. Things aren’t too glossy for India as it is for Australia, but they are definitely better than South Africa with relatively easier matches. If India win 4 of their remaining 5 games from here, it would take them to a PCT of 62.50%. This should be enough for them to qualify irrespective of the results of other teams.

However, if India win 3 and lose 2, they would end up with a PCT of 56.94%. In this scenario, India would hope South Africa also lose one and draw one or lose two of their remaining matches. Only then India are safe to qualify as South Africa could at max get to 55.96%. If not South Africa, India would have to hope Australia lose 4 and draw 1 as then Australia could get to a PCT of 56.14%.

If India win 2, draw 1, and lose2, they would get to a PCT of 53.24%. In this scenario, their only hope is South Africa lose three matches or lose two and draw one, and stay at a maximum PCT of 48.88%. India would also have to hope Sri Lanka lose one of their matches against New Zealand as that would take them to a maximum of 52.78%.

India Prediction: Final Points: 135 // PCT: 62.5%

South Africa: 

Points Contested: 132 // Points Earned: 72 // PCT: 54.54%

Yet to Contest: 2 Away Tests vs Australia & 2 Home Tests vs WI 

Coming to South Africa, their situation seems to be very similar to India. They are currently at third position with a PCT of 54.54%. However, unlike India, their fixtures are tougher. They are currently facing Australia in their den, and have already suffered a loss with two matches to go. Then they face West Indies at home for a 2-match Test series, which is a fairly easy one. 

For South Africa to qualify without any headache, they need to win all of their remaining matches. That would take them to a PCT of 66.67. In that case, one of India or Australia won’t qualify. If South Africa lose one, they would end up with a PCT of 60%. In this scenario, they would have to hope India lose one and draw one or lose two matches. 

If South Africa lose two (probably vs Australia), they would end up with a PCT of 53.33%. In this scenario, South Africa would hope Australia wins three matches against India as India could then at max get to 51.39%. However, the scenario looks highly unlikely. So, the best for South Africa would be to win one of the remaining two matches against Australia. 

South Africa Prediction: Final Points: 108 // PCT: 60%

Sri Lanka: 

Points Contested: 120 // Points Earned: 64 // PCT: 53.33%

Yet to Contest: 2 Away Tests vs New Zealand

Sri Lanka are not only fourth in the current points table but they are also fourth in the probability list to qualify for the WTC final. They have only two matches left, but these are away matches vs New Zealand. Historically, Sri Lanka have won only two matches in New Zealand with a W/L of 0.18.

For Sri Lanka to qualify, they have to win both their remaining matches, and then hope things fall in their favor. If they win both their remaining matches, they would end up with a PCT of 61.11%. They will still not qualify unless India lose 1 and draw 1 and South Africa lose one as India would then get to a PCT of 58.8% and South Africa to a PCT of 60%.  

If Sri Lanka lose one, the only way they can qualify is if India or SA both lose at least three matches. The chances of India losing three matches are very bleak. So, Sri Lanka will have to win both their Tests vs New Zealand for a good chance for the final. 

Sri Lanka Prediction: Final Points: 64 // PCT: 44.44%


So, that’s about the final qualification scenario for World Test Championship. Overall, Australia are best-placed to qualify for the final followed by India. South Africa will have to win three of their remaining four matches to have a good chance. Whereas Sri Lanka will have to win both their matches. 

thanks for reading! Looking at the ICC World Test Championship qualification scenarios for India, which two teams look best to qualify for the final? Please, email your comments to business@cricalytics.com

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