IPL 2024: Final Playoffs Scenario for Chennai Super Kings (CSK)
CSK to play a key encounter vs RCB as we look at the best playoffs qualification scenario for Chennai Super Kings (CSK) for IPL 2024.
What a fantastic Sunday night this has been for Royal Challengers Bengaluru as well as Chennai Super Kings. Both teams registered a stunning win over Delhi Capitals and Rajasthan Royals to keep their Playoffs hopes alive. A Bengaluru loss could have helped Chennai Super Kings, but with RCB winning vs DC by a huge margin, the last week of IPL 2024 will be an exciting affair.
One can say the season for Chennai Super Kings hasn’t gone the way they would have generally seen. Under the leadership of Ruturaj Gaikwad, who took the battalion from MS Dhoni, CSK lost a few matches at home, which they ideally wouldn’t have lost. Chennai has been a fortress for CSK, and losing matches there is the exact reason why CSK have still not qualified for Playoffs with just one match to go.
Overall, It has been a see-saw battle for Chennai Super Kings with a win followed by a loss in almost equal proportion. They have registered 7 wins and 6 losses so far, and their Playoffs chance will not only boil down to the final group stage match vs RCB, but they also need a few things to go in their favour. So, let’s analyze all matches from the final week of IPL 2024, and look at the best playoffs qualification scenario for Chennai Super Kings (CSK) for IPL 2024.
Chennai Super Kings Points Table Standings for IPL 2024
M: 13 // PTS: 14 // NRR: +0.528 // Position: 3rd
Next matches: RCB (A)
A big win against one of the league toppers, Rajasthan Royals have kept the Playoffs hope alive for the Super Kings. They are currently third in the points table with 14 points from 13 games, and have only one match left vs RCB away from home. Defeating RR has given CSK a major boost. Such is the situation now that only KKR have qualified for the Playoffs, and with 8 more matches to go, three more spots are up for grabs. But for CSK to make it to the top 4, they need to overcome the following obstacles.
Obstacle Number 1 – RCB
Starting with the main obstacle for CSK, the Royal Challengers Bengaluru. RCB are currently sitting at the 5th position with 12 points from 13 games. If LSG lose one match from here, the RCB vs CSK match will mostly be a knockout match. The difference between their NRR is also minimal with CSK at 0..528 and RCB at 0.387. As per calculations, RCB shall need to win the match by 18 or more runs if they bat first. Or they need to chase the target in roughly 18.1 overs. If RCB don’t achieve this, CSK shall be through.
Obstacle Number 2 – SRH
Well, SRH may currently not be an obstacle to CSK, but in case SRH lose both their matches and LSG lost one, SRH and LSG, both stay on 14 points. In this scenario, even if CSK lose to RCB, it shouldn’t be by a big margin. If this happens, RCB, SRH, LSG, and CSK, all end up at 14 points, and RCB and CSK should go through given their superior NRR. However, in this scenario, we are expecting three defeats to SRH and LSG. It’s not impossible, but definitely the most difficult.
Obstacle Number 3 – LSG
Coming to obstacle 3, there’s Lucknow Super Giants. Now, LSG currently have 12 points from 12 games, but their NRR of -0.7 is a big issue. For CSK to get through, LSG should lose one match. If LSG lose one, the only way CSK will get eliminated is if they lose to RCB by a big margin. But if LSG win two, they end on 16 points. In this scenario, CSK must hope SRH lose both their matches, or CSK defeats RCB, irrespective of the margin of victory.
Other than these three, there’s DC and GT too, who could also end up on 14 points. But given their horrible negative NRR, even if they end up on 14 points, they won’t be a match to CSK given CSK’s solid NRR. So, one can assume GT and DC are already out of IPL 2024, and only miracle can help them see the ending above SRH or CSK in the points table.
So, overall, for the simplicity of the analysis, all CSK need to do is just win their final encounter over RCB. If they do that, NRR will not come into the picture, and CSK will qualify without any issues. But in case CSK lose, all they gotta hope is for LSG to lose one match, and their margin of defeat against RCB is very minimal. In that scenario, Chennai Super Kings may still have a better NRR than RCB.
Thanks for reading! What’s your take on the best Playoffs qualification scenario for CSK for IPL 2024? Please email your thoughts to business@cricalytics.com
ALSO READ: T20 World Cup 2024: All 20 Teams Confirmed Final Squad List
Adesh Kothari is the founder of AK4Tsay1 Cricalytics with over 20 years of experience following Cricket.
Cricket to him is like what Football is to Lionel Messi, Singing is to Lata Mangeshkar, Dancing is to Michael Jackson, and Acting is to Clint Eastwood.
Besides his effervescent love for Cricket, Adesh is an MBA by qualification.
