T20 World Cup 2021: Latest Semifinal Qualification Scenarios

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T20 World Cup 2021: England and Pakistan, the best-placed teams currently as we look at the semifinal qualification scenarios for all the teams.

As I write this article, I feel extreme pain and agony given the way my home team, India has played in the tournament so far. Two defeats in two matches is possibly the worst start ever to the tournament that is considered as the most-awaited and prestigious for any player or fan.

When the tournament started, Group 1 was considered as the group of death, and Group 2 was a mere formality for India and one of New Zealand or Pakistan to qualify for the semi-final. But halfway in the tournament, we are seeing Group 2 being turned into Group of death. Whereas Group 1 is wide open except for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Officially Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are out of the Tournament, and the rest 10 teams are still in it. So, with just 13 matches left in the tournament, what are the Semifinal qualification scenarios for all the teams for T20 World Cup 2021? Does India still have a chance to qualify for the semi-final? Let’s find out in this article.

Group 1:

Table of Contents

England

M: 4 // PTS: 8 // NRR: +3.183

Next match: South Africa

After defeating Sri Lanka, England became the first team to qualify for the semi-final of the T20 World Cup 2021. They now have 4 wins from 4 games, and are all set to finish at the top of the table in Group 1. With their only match left against South Africa, they will only look to extend their unbeaten streak.

Qualification Meter: Positive

Australia

M: 3 // PTS: 4 // NRR: – 0.627

Next match: Bangladesh and West Indies

A big defeat against England has made Australia’s chances slightly tougher; although they are still well-placed to qualify for the semi-finals. A win from here may not be completely enough as that would also depend on the other team’s results. If South Africa win even one, their superior NRR should see them through

If West Indies or Sri Lanka win both their matches from here on, it would make Australia’s semi-final qualification scenario tougher. So, in an ideal case, Australia need to win both their matches to have a good shot at the semi-final. Even with that, Australia would want South Africa to lose at least one if not both.

Qualification Meter: Neutral

South Africa

M: 3 // PTS: 4 // NRR: +0.210

Next match: Bangladesh and England

South Africa are quite similarly placed as Australia; albeit a better NRR. If South Africa win both their matches, they are almost through unless Australia win their remaining two matches with one of them as a big win. If South Africa win just one match, their qualification would depend on Australia, Sri Lanka, and West Indies’ result. All these three have a chance to qualify at 6 points.

Qualification Meter: Positive

Sri Lanka, West Indies & Bangladesh

West Indies have very little chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. They are placed in the bottom half with 1 win from 3 games. A loss from here should end their World Cup hopes. They definitely have to win both their matches, and then hope for South Africa and Australia to lose one of their remaining two matches. In addition, West Indies need to win at least 1 match with a big win.

Unfortunately, for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, they are officially eliminated from the tournament with 3 losses. They can only play the role of party poppers by making an upset or two.

Qualification Meter: Negative

Group 2:

India

M: 2 // PTS: 0 // NRR: – 1.609

Next match: Afghanistan, Scotland, and Namibia

The biggest question among all. Does India still have a chance to qualify for the Semis? Well, practically speaking, India have an unrealistic chance of qualifying for the semi-final. But there’s still light down the funnel only if everything that happens in the tunnel goes India’s way.

Firstly, India would definitely need to win all their remaining matches. Secondly, India would need to win two big wins while chasing. Whatever target they get, they need to chase in less than 10 overs or so. Thirdly, India would need Afghanistan to win against New Zealand by a slim margin. Only then, India would see themselves go through the semi-final.

The good thing about the pending schedule is that if India win their next two matches, and Afghanistan win against New Zealand, India can plan the NRR and victory for the last group stage match against Namibia. This is the only positive left for Team India. So, until the last group stage match is over, India may not be officially out of this tournament.

Qualification Meter: Neutral

New Zealand

M: 2 // PTS: 2 // NRR: +0.765

Next match: Scotland, Namibia, and Afghanistan

The situation seems somewhat good for New Zealand after Team India’s game. But they also can’t afford a loss from here on. If they lose a match, India’s chances become stronger. If they lose against Afghanistan, they would be mostly out of the Tournament, unless they secure two big wins against Scotland and Namibia. So, Ideally, New Zealand would want two big wins against Scotland and Namibia, and make sure, they don’t lose against Afghanistan.

Qualification Meter: Positive

Scotland & Namibia

Needless to say, Scotland and Namibia don’t have a realistic chance of qualifying for the semi-final. While they have only played two matches each, they would need to defeat the likes of India, Pakistan, and New Zealand to make it to the Semis. This scenario goes beyond explanation, and one can safely assume, they aren’t the contenders for the semi-final.

Qualification Meter: Negative

Afghanistan

M: 3 // PTS: 4 // NRR: +3.097

Next match: India and New Zealand

Afghanistan have been a force to reckon in this tournament so far. They comfortably won big against Scotland and Namibia, and almost defeated Pakistan before Asif Ali played a blinder. For Afghanistan, their NRR is their biggest positive. Their match against New Zealand would be a virtual knock-out unless New Zealand lose to Scotland or Namibia.

Qualification Meter: Neutral

Pakistan

M: 3 // PTS: 6 // NRR: +0.638

Next match: Namibia and Scotland

Pakistan are almost confirmed for the semi-final. They are comfortably sitting at the top with 3 wins from 3 games, and their next two matches are against Scotland and Namibia. Needless to say, they will win at least one match, if not both to maintain the top position. With a semi-final qualification almost confirmed with the top position, Pakistan would be playing the second-ranked team from group 1.

Qualification meter: Positive

Conclusion:

Concluding the semifinal qualification scenario for T20 World Cup 2021, England and South Africa look best placed to qualify for the semi-final from Group 1. Whereas Pakistan and New Zealand look best-placed to qualify the semi-final from Group 2. India’s qualification would heavily depend on New Zealand vs Afghanistan match.

Thanks for reading! Looking at the qualification scenarios, which of these 4 teams do you think would qualify for the semifinal of T20 World Cup 2021? Please email your comments to business@cricalytics.com

Adesh Kothari

Adesh Kothari is the founder of AK4Tsay1 Cricalytics with over 20 years of experience following Cricket.

Cricket to him is like what Football is to Lionel Messi, Singing is to Lata Mangeshkar, Dancing is to Michael Jackson, and Acting is to Clint Eastwood.

Besides his effervescent love for Cricket, Adesh is an MBA by qualification.