World Cup 2023: All 10 Teams Semi-final Qualification Scenarios

Team India set to qualify for their fourth successive semi-final as we look at the latest qualification scenarios for all 10 teams for ODI World Cup 2023.  

We are at the halfway stage of the ODI World Cup 2023, and are now moving on to the business stage of the tournament with each team having 4 matches left. At the end of match 25, India are at the top of the table with 10 points from 5 games. Whereas the Netherlands are at the bottom of the points table with 2 points from 5 games. 

The story of the World Cup has been pretty interesting so far with a lot of upsets to witness. While the defending champions England are reeling at the ninth position, they have suffered two major upsets against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. Similarly, Pakistan and South Africa suffered major upsets against Afghanistan and the Netherlands respectively. 

With around 20 group stage matches to go, and 4 matches left for each team, all the analysts are on to their calculators to find out what all teams need to do to qualify for the Semi-finals. So, with the data that we have in hand, let’s analyze the upcoming 20 matches, and look at the best Semi-final qualification scenarios for all 10 teams for the ODI World Cup 2023.   

#10: Netherlands

M: 5 // PTS: 2 // NRR: -1.902

Next matches: Ban, Afg, Eng & India

The Netherlands are currently sitting at the bottom of the points table with 1 win from 5 games. The situation looks bleak for the Netherlands, who definitely need to win all 4 matches with big margins, and then hope the fourth-ranked team is also tied up with 10 points. This is possible, but for that, Australia need to lose at least two matches, and Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka need to lose at least one match. Even after that, the Netherlands would need a better NRR to qualify. 

Qualification Rank: 10

#9: Bangladesh

M: 5 // PTS: 2 // NRR: -1.253

Next matches: Ned, Pak, SL & Aus

Bangladesh are riding the same boat as the Netherlands with 2 points from 5 games. Time is running out for them, and they need to win all the matches henceforth with big margins. If Bangladesh win all the matches, that would take them to 10 points. Again similar to the Netherlands, Bangladesh would want Australia to lose at least two, and Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka to lose at least one match. Even after that, Bangladesh would need a good NRR to qualify. 

Qualification Rank: 9

#8: England

M: 5 // PTS: 2 // NRR: -1.634

Next matches: India, Aus, Ned & Pak

The defending champions are having a shocker of a tournament so far with just 1 win from 5 games. While not all is over for England with a mathematical P&C still possible for a semi-final spot, logically, England are all but out. Needless to say, England need to win all their remaining matches, and then hope, Australia lose at least two matches, and Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka lose at least one match. Even after that, England would need a good NRR to qualify via 2-3 big wins. 

Qualification Rank: 8

#7: Afghanistan

M: 5 // PTS: 4 // NRR: -0.969

Next matches: SL, Ned, Aus & SA

Two inspirational wins against England and Pakistan keep Afghanistan’s semi-final hopes alive. They currently have 4 points from 5 games, but with a negative NRR of -0.969. If Afghanistan win all their matches, they will end up on 12 points. 12 points are good enough unless Pakistan and Australia too end up at 12 points, and NRR comes into the picture.

However, if Afghanistan lose one match, that should not be against Australia or South Africa. In that scenario, Afghanistan would hope Australia lose at least two matches, and Sri Lanka and Pakistan lose at least once match. But with 10 points, Afghanistan need to have a couple of big wins to improve their NRR. 

Qualification Rank: 7

#6: Pakistan

M: 5 // PTS: 4 // NRR: -0.400

Next matches: SA, Ban, NZ & Eng

Pakistan started the World Cup with back-to-back wins, but have now suffered three losses in a row. While all is not lost for Pakistan, the road ahead seems very difficult with three big matches coming their way. If Pakistan win all four matches, they would only need Australia, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan to lose at least once. Then NRR vs Australia shall then decide their qualification.  

However, if Pakistan lose one match, they should hope it isn’t against Bangladesh or England. With 10 points, Pakistan would then hope for Australia to lose at least two matches, and Sri Lanka and Afghanistan to lose at least once. Even after that, Pakistan would need a good NRR to qualify. 

Qualification Rank: 6

#5: Sri Lanka

M: 5 // PTS: 4 // NRR: -0.205

Next matches: Afg, India, Ban & NZ

A win against England keeps Sri Lanka’s Semi-final hopes alive. Sri Lanka currently have 4 points from 5 games, and have a good shot at the semi-final spot. If Sri Lanka win all their matches, the only way they won’t qualify is if Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and India finish at 14 or above; which is definitely a possibility. However, if Sri Lanka lose one, they would then need Australia to lose at least two matches, and also hope Pakistan lose at least once.

Qualification Rank: 5

#4: Australia 

M: 5 // PTS: 6 // NRR: +1.142

Next matches: NZ, Eng, Afg & Ban

Coming to Australia, the 5-times World Champions started badly with 2 losses, but have now recovered to register three wins on the trot. The scenario is pretty simple for Australia. Win all the matches, and qualify without worrying about other results. But if Australia lose one, they should only hope Sri Lanka, Pakistan, or Afghanistan have points or NRR less than that of them.

However, if Australia lose two matches, which is also a possibility, they should hope Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Afghanistan lose at least one match, and Australia defeat England and Bangladesh. Even after that, Australia would need a good NRR to qualify for the Semis, which may not be a worry given their positive NRR.  

Qualification Rank: 4

#3: New Zealand

M: 5 // PTS: 8 // NRR: +1.481

Next matches: Aus, SA, Pak & SL

New Zealand are currently in the third position with 8 points from 5 games. Three wins in the next four games is enough for New Zealand to qualify. But if they lose two matches, one of those two shouldn’t be against Australia. If New Zealand end up on 12 points, the only way they will get eliminated is if Australia and South Africa end up on 14 points, and one of Pak/SL/Afg end up on 12 points with a superior NRR. 

Qualification Rank: 3

#2: South Africa

M: 5 // PTS: 8 // NRR: +2.370

Next matches: Pak, NZ, India & Afg

Coming to South Africa, they are meticulously sitting at the number 2 position with 4 wins from 5 games, and a healthy NRR of +2.370. South Africa’s journey to the Semis looks sorted if they win at least three matches. If they win two, it should still not be a problem given their superior NRR. But if South Africa lose three matches, they would hope one of Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Afghanistan lose at least one match.  

Qualification Rank: 2

#1: India

M: 5 // PTS: 10 // NRR: +1.353

Next matches: Eng, SL, SA & Ned

Team India are sitting right at the pinnacle of the points table with 5 wins from 5 games. India are just a win away from putting one foot into the Semis. If they win two matches, they are guaranteed a semi-final spot. But if India lose three matches, it should still be fine unless India suffers a big defeat. However, that scenario looks unlikely for India as we are hoping for India up on 16 or 18 points. 

Qualification Rank: 1

Conclusion:

So, that’s about the Semi-final qualification scenarios for all 10 teams for the ODI World Cup 2023. Overall, India and South Africa are well placed for a semi-final spot Whereas New Zealand and Australia look the next best to qualify for the Semis. Among the bottom 6 teams, realistically, only Sri Lanka have the best shot at the Semis. 

Thanks for reading! Among all 10 teams, who has the best Semi-final qualification scenarios for the ODI World Cup 2023? Please email your thoughts to business@cricalytics.com

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